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Category: List of Bases 2003 2003 ICTP activities in Trieste ICTP activities in Trieste
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lecture

Start Time:

29 September 2003 at 08:30

Ends On:

11 October 2003

Location:

Trieste - Italy

Venue:

AGH-Giambiagi

Organizer(s):

V.I. Keilis-Borok, G.F. Panza

Description:

Supported by the European Commission, Research DG,
Human Potential Programme, High Level Scientific Conferences

Monday, 29 September 2003

Room: Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall

08:30
10:00
REGISTRATION
01h30'
10:00
11:00
OPENING
01h00'


10.00 - 10.15 Prof. K.R. Sreenivasan  15'
10.25 - 10.35 Prof. V.I. Keilis-Borok  10'
10.15 - 10.25 Mr. M. De Cock (European Commission)  10'
10.35 - 10.45 Prof. G.F. Panza  10'
10.45 - 11.00 J. Grassberger (Computer Section)  15'
11:00
11:15
Coffee Break
15'
11:15
13:00
Fundamentals of Earthquake Prediction
01h45'
Prof. V. Keilis-Borok
13:00
14:15
Lunch Break
01h15'
14:15
16:00
What Can we Learn from a Catalog of Earthquakes?
01h45'
V. Kossobokov
16:00
16:15
Coffee Break
15'
16:15
17:15
Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Exercises: A. Egorkin, V. Keilis-Borok, V. Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A. Peresan, V. Rozenberg, A. Soloviev, I. Vorobieva
01h00'
17:15
19:00
GROUP A - Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Computer Exercises: A. Egorkin, V. Keilis-Borok, V. Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A. Peresan, V. Rozenberg, A. Soloviev, I. Vorobieva
01h45'
19:00
20:00
Dinner
01h00'
20:00
21:45
GROUP B - Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Computer Exercises: A. Egorkin, V. Keilis-Borok, V. Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A. Peresan, V. Rozenberg, A. Soloviev, I. Vorobieva
01h45'
Tuesday, 30 September 2003

Room: Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall

09:00
11:00
1. Fractal Properties of Earthquakes 2. Non-Linear Properties of Earthquakes
02h00'
C. Goltz
11:00
11:15
Coffee Break
15'
11:15
12:00
Integrals over Seismic Sequences
45'
V. Kossobokov
12:00
13:00
Earthquake Prediction by Monitoring the Loading Process of Plate-driving Forces at the Brittle-Ductile Transition Zone
01h00'
K. Aki
13:00
14:15
Lunch Break
01h15'
14:15
15:00
A Damage Model for the Brittle-Ductile Transition
45'
A. Agnon
15:00
16:00
Evidence for Electromagnetic Emission During Rock Loading and Fracture: A Way Towards an Earthquake Precursor
01h00'
M. Caputo
16:00
16:15
Coffee Break
15'
16:15
19:00
Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Exercises: A. Egorkin, V. Keilis-Borok, V. Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A. Peresan, V. Rozenberg, A. Soloviev, I. Vorobieva
02h45'
19:30
21:30
GET TOGETHER
02h00'
Room: Adriatico Guest House Cafeteria
Wednesday, 1 October 2003

Room: Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall

09:00
11:00
Experiments with Intermediate-term Medium-Range Earthquake Prediction Algorithms in Italy. Integrated Deterministic Hazard
02h00'
G.F. Panza
11:00
11:15
Coffee Break
15'
11:15
13:00
1. Non-linear Time Series Analysis 2. Microseismic and Volcanic Tremors; Two Examples of Non-linear Resonances
01h45'
A. Correig
13:00
14:15
Lunch
01h15'
14:15
15:00
Seismicity Pattern Decomposition
45'
C. Goltz
15:00
17:00
1. Plate-scale Coupling Suggested by Sedimetary & Historical Records of Earthquakes 2. Poroelastodynamic Liquefaction and Non-linear Dynamic Waves
02h00'
A. Agnon
17:00
17:15
Coffee Break
15'
17:15
19:00
GROUP B - Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Computer Exercises: A. Egorkin, V. Keilis-Borok, V. Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A. Peresan, V. Rozenberg, A. Soloviev, I. Vorobieva
01h45'
19:00
20:00
Dinner
01h00'
20:00
21:45
GROUP A - Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs - Computer Exercises: A. Egorkin, V. Keilis-Borok, V. Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A. Peresan, V. Rozenberg, A. Soloviev, I. Vorobieva.
01h45'
Thursday, 2 October 2003

Room: Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall

09:00
11:00
1. Seismological Observations on the Interaction between the Brittle and Ductile Part of the Lithosphere 2. Lessons Learned from an Active Volcano about Earthquake Prediction
02h00'
K. Aki
11:00
11:15
Coffee Break
15'
11:15
12:15
A Practical Approach to Prediction of Geomagnetic Series
01h00'
V. Kossobokov
12:15
13:00
Experimental and Theoretical Memory Diffusion of Water in Sand
45'
M. Caputo
13:00
14:15
Lunch Break
01h15'
14:15
16:00
1. Earthquake Dynamics 2. Earthquake Occurrence
01h45'
A. Correig
16:00
16:15
Coffee Break
15'
16:15
17:00
Models of Dynamics of Block-and-Fault Systems
45'
A. Soloviev
17:00
19:00
Numerical Simulation of Block Structure Dynamics - Exercises: A. Egorkin, V. Keilis-Borok, V. Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A. Peresan, V. Rozenberg, A. Soloviev, I. Vorobieva
02h00'
19:00
20:00
Dinner
01h00'
20:00
21:45
Group A - Numerical Simulation of Block Structure Dynamics - Computer Excercises: A. Egorkin, V. Keilis-Borok, V. Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A. Peresan, V. Rozenberg, A. Soloviev, I. Vorobieva
01h45'
Friday, 3 October 2003

Room: Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall

09:00
10:00
A Physical Scenario for Earthquake Prediction
01h00'
A. Correig
10:00
11:00
Boolean Delay Equations (BDEs) as Succinct Models for Climate, Evolution, Earthquakes, and other Complex Stuff. Theory of BDEs
01h00'
M. Ghil
11:00
11:15
Coffee Break
15'
11:15
12:15
Earthquake & Volcano Prediction at the Contact Point of Non-linear Dynamics & Geodynamics
01h00'
K. Aki
12:15
13:00
Testing Earthquake Prediction Methods: verified "Precursors" and Verisimilar "Predjudices"
45'
V. Kossobokov
13:00
14:15
Lunch Break
01h15'
14:15
16:00
1. Pattern Recognition Methods 2. Geophysical Applications of Pattern Recognition
01h45'
A. Soloviev
16:00
16:15
Coffee Break
15'
16:15
19:00
Numerical Simulation of Block Structure Dynamics - Exercises: A. Egorkin, V. Keilis-Borok, V. Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A. Peresan, V. Rozenberg, A. Soloviev, I. Vorobieva
02h45'
19:00
20:00
Dinner
01h00'
20:00
21:45
Group B - Numerical Simulation of Block Structure Dynamics - Computer Exercises: A. Egorkin, V. Keilis-Borok, V. Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A. Peresan, V. Rozenberg, A. Soloviev, I. Vorobieva
01h45'
Saturday, 4 October 2003 (Saturday)

Room: Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall

09:00
11:00
Group A - Numerical Simulation of Block Structure Dynamics - Computer Exercises: A. Egorkin, V. Keilis-Borok, V. Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A. Peresan, V. Rozenberg, A. Soloviev, I. Vorobieva
02h00'
11:00
11:15
Coffee Break
15'
11:15
12:45
Group B - Numerical Simulation of Block Structure Dynamics - Computer Exercises: A. Egorkin, V. Keilis-Borok, V. Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A. Peresan, V. Rozenberg, A. Soloviev, I. Vorobieva
01h30'
12:45
14:15
Lunch
01h30'
14:15
18:00
Pattern Recognition - Exercises: A. Egorkin, V. Keilis-Borok, V. Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A. Peresan, V. Rozenberg, A. Soloviev, I. Vorobieva
03h45'
Monday, 6 October 2003

Room: Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall

09:00
11:00
Short-term Earthquake Prediction: "Tail Wags the Dog" Approach
02h00'
V. Keilis-Borok
10:45
11:00
Coffee Break
15'
11:00
13:00
Boolean Delay Equations (BDEs) as Succinct Models for Climate, Evolution, Earthquakes, and other Complex Stuff 1. Climate Applications 2. Earthquake Applications
02h00'
M. Ghil
13:00
14:15
Lunch Break
01h15'
14:15
16:00
Are Fractality and Self-organized Criticality Relevant to the Problems of Seismicity?
01h45'
L. Knopoff
16:00
16:15
Coffee Break
15'
16:15
19:00
1. IAEA Safety Guide on Seismic Hazard Analysis for Nuclear Power Plants 2. Case Histories in the Implementation of the IAEA Safety Guide on Seismic Hazard Analysis for Nuclear Power Plants I&II
02h45'
A. Guerpinar
19:00
20:00
Dinner
01h00'
20:00
21:45
GROUP A - Pattern Recognition - Computer Exercises: A. Egorkin, V. Keilis-Borok, V. Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A. Peresan, V. Rozenberg, A. Soloviev, I. Vorobieva
01h45'
Tuesday, 7 October 2003

Room: Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall

09:00
11:00
1. Fundamentals of Damage Mechanics 2. Applications of Damage Mechanics to Seismicity
02h00'
D. Turcotte
11:00
11:15
Coffee Break
15'
11:15
13:00
Physics of Foreshocks and Aftershocks
01h45'
L. Knopoff
13:00
14:15
Lunch Break
01h15'
14:15
15:15
International Programs of US National Science Foundation
01h00'
J. Whitcomb
15:15
16:00
Prediction of Crime Surges
45'
V. Keilis-Borok
16:00
16:15
Coffee Break
15'
16:15
18:00
1. Intermediate-term Middle-range Earthquake Prediction Algorithm M8 2. How to Reduce Earthquake Prediction Uncertainty from Middle-range to Narrow? Algorithm MSc (Mendocino Scenario)
01h45'
V. Kossobokov
18:00
19:00
Modelling of Block Structure Dynamics and Seismicity for Italy
01h00'
I. Vorobieva
19:00
20:00
Dinner
01h00'
20:00
21:45
Group B - Pattern Recognition - Computer Exercises: A. Egorkin, V. Keilis-Borok, V. Kossobokov, O. Novikova, A. Peresan, V. Rozenberg, A. Soloviev, I. Vorobieva
01h45'
Wednesday, 8 October 2003

Room: Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall

09:00
11:00
Models of Earthquakes as a Self-Organizing Process
02h00'
L. Knopoff
11:00
11:15
Coffee Break
15'
11:15
13:00
Uncertainties in Physics: Measuring Errors, Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle
01h45'
H. Moritz
13:00
14:15
Lunch Break
01h15'
14:15
15:15
Understanding Aftershocks
01h00'
D. Turcotte
15:15
17:00
The Spherical Block Model: Dynamics of the Global System of Tectonic Plates and Seismicity
01h45'
V. Rozenberg
17:00
17:15
Coffee Break
15'
17:15
19:00
1. Dependence of Seismicity and Faulting on Dynamics of Fluids 2. The Strength of Seismogenic Faults and Seismicity
01h45'
S. Miller
19:00
20:00
Dinner
01h00'
20:00
21:45
GROUP A - The Algorithms "M8" and "Mendocino Scenario" - Computer Exercises: A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O.Novikova, A. Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
01h45'
Thursday, 9 October 2003

Room: Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall

09:00
11:00
1. Uncertainties in Mathematics: Improvability 2. Uncertainties and in Logic: Goedel's Theorems, Fuzzy Logic
02h00'
H. Moritz
11:00
11:15
Coffee Break
15'
11:15
13:00
1. Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs for Earthquake Prediction purposes: the Case of Italy 2. Multiscale Seismicity Model and Intermediate-term Medium-range Earthquake Prediction in Italy
01h45'
A. Peresan
13:00
14:15
Lunch Break
01h15'
14:15
16:00
Stress and Seismicity in Areas of Descending Relic Slabs: The Southeastern Carpathians
01h45'
A. Ismail-Zadeh
16:00
16:15
Coffee Break
15'
16:15
17:00
Seismicity of Complex Fault Systems
45'
S. Miller
17:00
19:00
GROUP A - The Algorithms "M8" and "Mendocino Scenario" - Computer Exercises: A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O.Novikova, A. Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
02h00'
19:00
20:00
Dinner
01h00'
20:00
21:45
GROUP B - The Algorithms "M8" and "Mendocino Scenario" - Computer Exercises: A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O.Novikova, A. Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
01h45'
Friday, 10 October 2003

Room: Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall

09:00
10:00
Stress and Seismicity in Areas of Descending Relic Slabs: The Central Apennines
01h00'
A. Ismail-Zadeh
10:00
11:00
On the Forward Modeling of Mantle Dynamics
01h00'
A. Ismail-Zadeh
11:00
11:15
Coffee Break
15'
11:15
12:00
On the Backward Modeling of Mantle Dynamics
45'
A. Ismail-Zadeh
12:00
13:00
Algorithm for Prediction of the Subsequent Strong Earthquake (SSE)
01h00'
I. Vorobieva
13:00
14:15
Lunch Break
01h15'
14:15
15:00
Prediction of the Subsequent Strong Earthquake in Nine Regions of the World: Results of Monitoring 1989-2003
45'
I. Vorobieva
15:00
16:00
GROUP B - The Algorithms "M8" and "Mendocino Scenario" - Computer Exercises: A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O.Novikova, A. Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
01h00'
16:00
16:15
Coffee Break
15'
16:15
19:00
GROUP B - The Algorithms "M8" and "Mendocino Scenario" - Computer Exercises: A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O.Novikova, A. Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
02h45'
19:00
20:00
Dinner
01h00'
20:00
21:45
Consultations: A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O.Novikova, A. Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
01h45'
Saturday, 11 October 2003 (Saturday)

Room: Adriatico Guest House Giambiagi Lecture Hall

09:00
11:00
Final Consultations: Distribution of Software: A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O.Novikova, A. Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
02h00'
11:00
11:15
Coffee Break
15'
11:15
12:45
Final Consultations, Distribution of the software: A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O.Novikova, A. Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
01h30'
12:45
14:15
Lunch
01h30'
14:15
16:00
Final Consultations: Distribution of Software: A.Egorkin, V.Keilis-Borok, V.Kossobokov, O.Novikova, A. Peresan, V.Rozenberg, A.Soloviev, I.Vorobieva
01h45'
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